New book gives critical analysis on 40 years since Iranian revolution

Leading Middle Eastern scholar Professor Amin Saikal has cautioned that American sanctions placed on Iran following the Trump administration's withdrawal from a multiparty nuclear deal are unlikely to work, and could lead to military conflict.

Professor Saikal is the author of three books about the Middle Eastern giant, includingIran Rising: the survival and future of the Islamic Republic (Princeton University Press, 2019), which was released on 5 February.

He said the sanctions are designed to bring about a regime change or a change in regime behaviour, neither of which is likely to be achieved.

“I don't think the sanctions are likely to bring the Iranian Islamic regime to its knees, but it will certainly impact the lives of ordinary Iranian citizens," the Director of the ANU Centre for Arab & Islamic Studies said.

“The Iranian regime is well entrenched and has sufficient forces at its disposal to deal with any major uprisings.”

Professor Saikal discusses his new book on ABC RN's Late Night Live 

Professor Saikal also warned that the current tensions between Iran, and the US and its regional allies – Israel and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in particular – carry the potential to lead to war.

“That is always on the cards, but I think both sides know a war could be very costly. Iran's strategy is to make sure the cost of an attack is very high for its perpetrators,” he said.

“If not a direct conflict between Iran and the United States, there could be a major clash between Israel and Iran, particularly in Syria where the Israelis have continued to target Iranian forces.”

Professor Saikal's book gives a critical analysis of Iranian politics and society on the 40th anniversary of the Iranian Revolution, which saw the overthrow of the pro-Western monarchy of Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi and its replacement with an Islamic republic.

The book has received wide-spread positive reviews including from respected book review publications Kirkus Review and Publishers Weekly. It also features in a list of 20 essential books about the Middle East, compiled by the Middle Eastern Studies community at Anhui University in central China.

Iran Rising: the survival and future of the Islamic Republic is also be available as e-book and audio book narrated by English actor and narrator Simon Shepherd.

Professor Saikal’s previous books include The Rise and Fall of the Shah (Princeton University Press 1980), with an expanded paperback edition of it published also by PUP in 2009 under the title of The Rise and Fall of the Shah: Iran from autocracy to religious rule; and Iran at the Crossroads (Cambridge: Polity Press, 2016).